In the past, when we have reached El Niño Alert, events have subsequently developed around 70% of the time. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) outlook remains at El Niño Alert.The long-range forecast reflects known impacts from several significant climate drivers: For minimum temperatures, accuracy has been moderate to high, increasing to very high for parts of eastern Australia and western WA. Past accuracy of the September to November chance of above median maximum temperature long-range forecasts has been high to very high across almost all of Australia.For September to November, minimum temperatures are likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) to be above median for almost all of Australia.For September, above median minimum temperatures are likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) for most of Australia, excluding some areas in the NT, SA, Queensland and NSW.For September to November, most of Australia is at least twice as likely to experience unusually high maximum temperatures (unusually high maximum temperatures equate to the warmest 20% of September to November periods from 1981 to 2018), with chances increasing to more than four times as likely for most of western and central WA.For September to November, above median maximum temperatures are very likely (greater than 80% chance) for almost all of Australia.Warmer than median days and nights for Australia during September to November Past accuracy of September to November long-range forecasts for the chance of above median rainfall is high to very high for eastern Australia, decreasing to low to very low skill for western WA. Unusually low rainfall equates to the driest 20% of September to November periods from 1981 to 2018. Unusually low rainfall for September to November is at least twice as likely in southern areas of WA and SA, NSW's Riverina District, Victoria, Tasmania and areas of central and eastern Queensland.For September to November (spring), below median rainfall is likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) for southern, northern and eastern Australia, excluding areas east of the Great Dividing Range.Above average rainfall is likely (60% to 80% chance) for some areas of the WA Interior and Pilbara districts. Small isolated areas near the Victoria-SA border and in the Australian Alps are very likely (greater than 80% chance) to be below median. For September, below median rainfall is likely (60% to 80% chance) for southern Australia including Tasmania, much of the eastern states to the west of the Great Dividing Range, and northern Tropical regions.Drier than median spring for southern, eastern and northern Australia
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |